Hope a little... I dare you
Back in 2022 his father had lost a knife-edge election to leftist veteran Lula and attempted to orchestrate a violent uprising to prevent the transfer of power (sounds familiar).
And when Bolsonaro Jr topped the polls in the first round of this month's Presidential contest, it seemed certain that he would win the second ballot and restart his dad's agenda of attacking democratic freedoms, persecuting minorities and cutting through swathes of the Amazon.
Progressives had plenty of reasons to feel pessimistic; not since the return of Brazilian democracy some 40 years ago had a candidate defeated in the first round gone on to win the run-off.
Lula's road to re-election would not only have to reverse a polling deficit of a few million voters but overcome a formidable coalition of oil barons, betting companies and oligarchs irked by his policies.
Worse still there were disturbing claims that tech giant Meta had bent algorithms in Bolsonaro's favour and gone as far as to block his opponent's social media ads.
Meanwhile looming over the contest was US President Donald Trump, who had also done his damndest to tilt the scales in his fellow populist's favour - slapping tariffs on Brazilian goods and sanctioning the judge who had jailed the older Bolsonaro for his attempted coup.
Against these headwind's Lula's supporters had mobilised online and taken to the streets in their millions, steadily depleting their rival's lead in the polls.
But even on polling day, sensing the shift in momentum, there were grim reports of Bolsonaro allies shutting down public transport in progressive strongholds. The resulting chaos saw voting hours abruptly extended.
But when the numbers were finally counted there was jubilation that the Workers' Party had completed their astonishing comeback.
The lesson of Brazil is that would-be demagogues can be defeated even in the most fearsome circumstances.
Indeed, hours before the jubilant scenes in South America, there were similar celebrations in Serbia.
The authoritarian leader Aleksandar Vučić, who has dominated the country's politics for over a decade, had suffered a seismic defeat at the hands of a student protest movement turned insurgent political force. Galvanised by government corruption and soundtracked by 90s dance anthem Freed from Desire, the challengers had stormed to an overall majority.
These stories cut against the popular narrative that in the current climate of economic uncertainty and misinformation the populists enjoy an unassailable advantage.
Here at home I have seen too many people accept the Reform Party's basic framing that Nigel Farage's passage to Downing Street is assured; that no amount of exposes or screw-ups can damage their chances
The reality is that their polling lead has collapsed and turned to a deficit; in some surveys they are now back in third behind the Conservatives. Reform has not won a council by-election for a month, nor a national by-election since clinching the Runcorn seat by 6 votes in May 2025.
The slump in support comes amid increasing scrutiny of members - more than 100 councillors have already quit or stood down - and a growing scandal around Farage's financial dealings.
With a Parliamentary probe into an undisclosed donation and police investigations into alleged attempts to defy electoral law, it's no wonder the party's momentum has come to a juddering halt.
Elections often defy global trends and it would be reckless to say the tide is decisively turning against dangerous reactionaries; many of Brazil's neighbours have shifted to the right and we are all too aware of the worrying electoral landscape in France, Germany and elsewhere.
But rumours of democracy's demise are as easily exaggerated. In the days ahead Israel may yet eject wanted war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu, while Trump's Presidency could finally be constrained if, as hoped, the Democrats take back one or both houses of Congress.
The left will continue to lose contests, it has plenty of experience of that, but it must never lose hope of pushing back against a wider and more permanent reversal of freedoms. Had that fatalism taken hold in Sao Paulo or Subotica today could look very different and tomorrow feel even grimmer.
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